Leave voters say Tories and Brexit Party should work together to secure Brexit


Image: EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT

According to a new poll conducted by YouGov on behalf of Britain Elects, 69% of Leave voters say the Conservatives and the Brexit Party should work together to secure Brexit.

This includes 82% of Conservative Leave voters who believe it is a price worth paying in order to ensure the UK's departure from the European Union goes ahead.

More interestingly, 56% of Leave voters (and 65% of Conservative voters) believe Conservative MPs defecting to the Brexit Party would be a price worth paying to guarantee Brexit.

These findings are replicated among Remain voters, with 66% of those who backed Remain in 2016 wanting Remain parties to work together so as to put a halt to Britain's departure.

57% of Remain voters would also be willing to see MPs from Labour defect to the Liberal Democrats in order to stop Brexit.

Both findings of Remain and Leave voters suggest a continuation in the breakdown of party loyalty, and a greater adherence to the Remain/Leave brand.

Other findings include:

49% of Leave voters told YouGov that the breakup of the United Kingdom is a price worth paying to secure Britain's departure from the EU.

18% of Leave voters want Parliament to get prorogued (temporarily closed down) so as to secure Brexit. 57% in total believe it is a price worth paying.

54% of Leave voters believe the UK becoming economically poorer would be a price worth paying to ensure Brexit goes ahead.


Notes:
YouGov poll commissioned by Britain Elects
Sample Size: 1,680 GB Adults
Fieldwork: 07 - 08 July, 2019

About Britain Elects:
Britain Elects was founded in 2013 and is Europe’s leading polling aggregator. Our poll trackers are updated as data is released and cover voting intentions for the main political parties, leaders and policies at local and national level, as well as Brexit. We also publish polls in other subject areas that are not included in our trackers. We are a non-partisan organisation and, purely for purposes of transparency and guaranteed access to data tables, only British Polling Council pollsters feature in our trackers.

Contact Britain Elects
E: walker@britainelects.com
M: 07904 438 915


Boris won't improve Tory electoral fortunes, poll suggests

REUTERS - Rebecca Naden

According to a new poll conducted by YouGov on behalf of Britain Elects, Boris Johnson as leader of the Conservatives would struggle to improve the Conservative Party's electoral fortunes in a general election. The poll results indicate that any poll bounce for the Conservative Party from electing Johnson as its leader will not materialise in the short term and may only come after Brexit has been delivered. Voters were asked how they would vote in two scenarios.

Scenario 1: If a general election were held with Boris Johnson as Conservative leader before Brexit had been delivered.

The results indicate that a Johnson win is now already priced into current polling with party voting numbers sitting virtually unchanged from current national polls.
(Figures with undecideds and refused excluded: Con 23%, LDem 23%, Brexit 21%, Lab 17%, Grn 8%)

Scenario 2: If a general election were held with Boris Johnson as Conservative leader after Brexit had been delivered.

Under this scenario the Conservative party would build up an 8pt lead over the Lib Dems and a 11pt lead over Labour. The Brexit Party would fall 7pts to 14%.
(Figures with undecideds and refused excluded: Con 28%, LDem 20%, Brexit 14%, Lab 17%, Grn 9%)

Boris Johnson is also seen by voters to be more likely than Jeremy Hunt to deliver Brexit by October 31st and most likely to promise anything to be Prime Minister.


Full Results:

Voting intention with Boris Johnson as leader of the Conservative Party before Brexit is delivered

Scenario 1: Imagine that a General Election is held later this year before Brexit has been delivered. Boris Johnson is the leader of the Conservatives, Jeremy Corbyn remains leader of the Labour Party, Jo Swinson is leader of the Liberal Democrats and Nigel Farage is leader of the Brexit Party. How do you think you would then vote?

Con: 17%
LDem: 17%
Brex: 16%
Lab: 13%
SNP: 3%
Green: 6%
Plaid: 1%
Oth: 2%
Don’t know: 14%
Would not vote: 9%
Refused: 2%

Figures with undecideds and refused excluded:
Con: 23%
LDem: 23%
Brex: 21%
Lab: 17%
Grn: 8%


Voting intention with Boris Johnson as leader of the Conservative Party after Brexit had been delivered

Scenario 2: Imagine that a General Election is held later this year after Brexit has been delivered. Boris Johnson is the leader of the Conservatives, Jeremy Corbyn remains leader of the Labour Party, Jo Swinson is leader of the Liberal Democrats and Nigel Farage is leader of the Brexit Party. How do you think you would then vote?

Con: 20%
Lib: 15%
Brex: 10%
Lab: 13%
SNP: 3%
Grn: 7%
Plaid: 1%
Oth: 1%
Don’t know: 16%
Would not vote: 9%
Refused: 4%

Figures with undecideds and refused excluded:
Con: 28%
LDem: 20%
Brex: 14%
Lab: 17%
Grn: 9%


Notes:
YouGov poll commissioned by Britain Elects
Sample Size: 1,680 GB Adults
Fieldwork: 07 - 08 July, 2019

About Britain Elects:
Britain Elects was founded in 2013 and is Europe’s leading polling aggregator. Our poll trackers are updated as data is released and cover voting intentions for the main political parties, leaders and policies at local and national level, as well as Brexit. We also publish polls in other subject areas that are not included in our trackers. We are a non-partisan organisation and, purely for purposes of transparency and guaranteed access to data tables, only British Polling Council pollsters feature in our trackers.

Contact Britain Elects
E: walker@britainelects.com
M: 07904 438 915


Are voters willing to compromise on Brexit?

Are the public willing to compromise on Brexit?

by Ben Walker, 16 Jul 2018


A new Deltapoll survey has shed some light on, what with the news about the Chequers deal now settled in the minds of the British public, what they think the government should be willing to compromise on in the Brexit negotiations.

Some of the responses were expected. 52% of voters think “the ability to decide our own laws” should not be up for negotiation, but 55% now think money payed to the EU each year should be struck me, perhaps, as something new. An ICM survey in April found two thirds opposed to paying an exit bill of £10bn or more,  but I wonder if prompting figures is the best way to gauging public support. Most voters in the US, and I suspect the UK, are clueless when it comes to the size of the foreign aid budget, but the sentiment of the public thinking it too large exists nonetheless, and so that is why I think the 55% figure is an interesting one, and perhaps indicative of a shift in opinion.

By and large though, the British people are monumentally split. Helpful.

As expected. Remain voters split 47% in favour of it being up for discussion, 45% against.

Leave voters are split down the middle on this, with 45% believing the money we pay should be up for negotiation, 46% against.

Tables for the Deltapoll survey available here.


Theresa May has lost the first week of her Chequers war

Theresa May has lost the first week of her Chequers war

by Ben Walker, 13 Jul 2018


“When I asked Theresa May on Saturday if she would do a broadcast to the nation to sell the deal, she looked at me like I was an idiot”.

These are the words of Tim Shipman, Political Editor of the Sunday Times. To me they helpfully epitomise why the Brexit deal agreed last Friday at Chequers has gone down badly with the public.

Most voters offer as little as a few minutes a week, if that, to political news, and so first impressions and bite-sized stories that can be easily understood matter hugely. The main stories that have so far featured in the aftermath of Chequers have been Donald Trump’s put-down of a US-UK trade deal and the resignations of David Davis and Boris Johnson. It’s easier for the public to become aware of and understand the resignation of Boris, a figure who 51% of Leave voters have a favourable view of (notably up from 45% in Nov 2017) in protest of the deal, than the detail of the deal itself. It doesn’t help the cause of the government, either, that Theresa May is yet to make any serious attempt to engage with the media, and by extension, the electorate.

So in the space of this week, what do the public think?

Belief in the Chequers deal being ‘bad for Britain’ is the view of 42% of the nation, but not as split by voting intention as some might expect. Though there have been demonstrations of support from predominantly Remain voting Conservative MPs, just 15% of Remain voters and 14% of Leave voters think the deal good for Britain. In contrast, 51% of Leave voters and 42% of Remain voters see the deal as bad for the nation.

Much of the public (40%) view the deal as ‘too soft’. 66% of Leave voters are in agreement with this, whereas Remain voters are this time quite split between thinking it too hard (23%), too soft (18%) or just about right (18%).

It also needs noting over one in three Brits (35%) don’t have a clue.

[YouGov]: "Thinking about the approach that Theresa May is taking towards Brexit, do you think she is aiming for a Brexit that is..."

Theresa May’s favourability with the nation has crashed to a record low. Just one in five Brits view her favourably (down 9pts on May), as opposed to 62% who view her unfavourably (up 7pts). YouGov’s Matthew Smith points out that those turning against her seem to be predominantly Brexit voters.

This newfound alienation with the swathe of voters that gave the Tories an extended honeymoon in 2016-17 appears to be already doing the blues damage in the polls, though as to whether it’s terminal and whether these votes do drift in large enough numbers to other parties rather than stay loyal but dissatisfied is yet to be seen. One factor which may influence as to whether this shift will be terminal might be who leads the Conservative party after Mrs May’s departure, something perhaps entirely dependent on how they responded to the Chequers deal.

The latest YouGov voting intention puts the Conservatives on 37%, the lowest share with the pollster since April 2016; and UKIP on 6%, its highest share with the pollster since May 2017. This is also reflected in the latest Survation (though surveyed before the resignations), where they are down 3pts and behind Labour; but not in the latest ICM, which has the Tories 2pts ahead and unchanged on two weeks previous.

It would be wrong to draw from these findings that it is Leave voters alone who are leading the dissatisfied charge against the government’s plan. The fact there was little disparity in the YouGov survey between Leave and Remain voters on the view that the deal is bad for Britain is particularly interesting. If Mrs May’s intentions were to make both sides of a divided electorate unhappy over Brexit, then it appears she’s passed with flying colours. Early indications point to a fall in support for the Tories, the potential return of UKIP, and an increase in support for a referendum on the final deal. Survation, albeit from June, had 48% supporting a second vote; and YouGov’s more recent tracker (posing a different but similar question) has opposition to a vote ahead, though down 4pts on when it was last asked.

Though the deal has so far failed to please the nation, let alone May’s own voters, perhaps it really isn’t relevant what the public think, for the votes that matter the most at this moment in time are those sitting in the Commons.


Public opposed to military action in Syria

Surveys from pollsters YouGov and Sky Data paint a grim picture for those advocating military action in Syria.

Though both polls show a significant number of Britons are at present undecided, suggesting there’s ground to be gained by either side in the weeks and months ahead, much of those with an opinion are opposed to military action in response to the alleged chemical attack by the Syrian regime.

Sky Data has opposition to intervention with a lead of just 1pt, at 37 per cent and support at 36 per cent, while YouGov (asking with regards to the launching of cruise missiles) has opposition at 43 per cent and support at 22 per cent. The share of those undecided or with no opinion stands at 27 per cent and 34 per cent respectively.

It isn’t particularly notable that there is a 14pt disparity between the pollsters on support for military action, for Sky Data asks regarding generic military action and YouGov asks on the particular action of launching cruise missiles.

What is worth noting, however, is that Sky Data asked a second question. The question starts with a repeat of the first, as mentioned earlier…

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/984150100896288769

… but also includes a prompt for the potential of conflict with Russia as a consequence of UK military intervention:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/984150198023786505

Support ‘falls’, as it were, from 36 per cent to 28 per cent.

Further findings by the pollsters include:

Britons overwhelmingly back a no fly zone over Syria:
Support: 60 per cent; Oppose: 9 per cent (YouGov).

Sending troops “to protect civilians” holds similar support to launching cruise missiles:
Support: 22 per cent; Oppose: 50 per cent (YouGov).

Sending troops to overthrow the Syrian regime has majority opposition:
Support: 17 per cent; Oppose: 51 per cent (YouGov).

Tables:

YouGov
Sky Data

 


The charts that explain 2017

The Charts That Tell 2017

The Charts That Tell 2017

A once apathetic generation mobilised and a government now without a majority: here are the charts that explain Britain’s 2017.

by Ben Walker, 04 January 2017

Labour started the year 12pts behind and ended it 2pts ahead

You’d be forgiven for thinking there was no hope of a turnaround in Labour fortunes at the start of 2017. Up until April there was minor change in the twelve point lead enjoyed by the Tories and only after the u-turn on social care during the general election campaign did the blues start shedding support, losing all that was gained after the snap poll was announced.

Labour experienced a short period of ‘honeymoon’ in the aftermath of the general election, leading the Tories by four points through June and then retreating to an average of two points by the end of the year.

There’s been yet no noticeable change in support for the other parties: UKIP crashed following the election announcement and the Lib Dems and Greens have seen little traction with the public. Talk of a #LibDemFightback are at present reserved for council by-elections and shoots of a #GreenSurge have yet to materialise.

Though Labour has a lead, all parties are within the margin of error of what was attained in June. If an election were held tomorrow it shouldn’t be a surprise if little changed with some Conservative-DUP arrangement continuing. Labour needs to average three or more points to be assured of a lead, and around six to attain an outright majority.

The number of Britons who want Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister has doubled

More Britons still prefer Theresa May as Prime Minister over Jeremy Corbyn, but the numbers today are a far cry from what they were a year ago, when close to half of Britons were of that opinion compared to 37 per cent now.

Jeremy Corbyn has seen the numbers wanting him in Number 10 almost double, from 16 per cent at the end of 2016 to 31 per cent now.

Young people now like voting

Turnout among older voters has always been consistently high, and only since the EU referendum have young people fancied voting in great numbers too. Whether or not 18-24 year olds came out for Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour party, an opposition to Brexit or even simply as a consequence of an engaging campaign during the referendum is yet to be seen, but the 2017 election has, probably, solidified their presence as a newly engaged demographic that parties will have to respond to.

Small shift towards those thinking Brexit to be the wrong decision

Over the course of 2017 YouGov asked the public 37 times whether they thought the vote to leave the EU was the right or wrong decision, and of the 23 asked in the run up to the general election, 16 had a plurality agreeing it was right. Of the 14 taken following the election, just one said it was right.

Though the most recent YouGov has a plurality believing Brexit to be the wrong decision, and though more on average opine such since June, this is mostly margin of error stuff. The latest puts it at 45-42, and 29 of the 37 polls taken this year have given leads for either side of 3pts or less.

It can’t be said that the country is seriously changing its mind on the issue, or whatever sensational headline can be (and has been) thought up. The country by and large still wants Britain’s departure to go ahead, but there has been some recent evidence to suggest that support for a referendum on the Brexit deal is substantial, although the figures given are mixed. Survation have it at 50%, YouGov at 33% (note the similar question wording) and ICM 32%.

Public opinion on the Brexit negotiations have been broadly disapproving with only a breather of approval given to the government in the run-up to the triggering of Article 50 and during the general election campaign. ORB’s series put disapproval at a record high of 66% in November.