How high can the Brexit Party climb? Much higher

A new YouGov poll commissioned by the People’s Vote campaign has given the Brexit Party its first lead in the opinion polls for May’s European Elections.

The poll puts Nigel Farage’s party at 27 per cent, five points clear of Labour’s 22 per cent. The Conservatives are trudging along at 15 per cent. The Greens are in double figures, at 10 per cent, and the Independent Group – Change UK, are languishing behind UKIP (seven per cent) and the Liberal Democrats (nine per cent) with six per cent.

There are a number of reasons to believe the Brexit Party could do better than what YouGov are showing us today.

The optics for public disquiet about Britain participating in the European elections are all there. Opinium last week had 44 per cent of voters (including 52 per cent of Tory voters, 66 per cent of Leave voters and 30 per cent of Labour voters) viewing Britain’s participation as unacceptable.

The most recent EuroParl voting intentions all put certainty to vote among ABC1s and Remain voters higher than C2DEs and Leave voters. As the campaign kicks into gear that will most likely change, and we may find the disaffected – and, by extension, those of the extreme ends of the Remain-Leave spectrum – growing to be more vociferous and certain in their declaration for a party. The only parties to benefit from what is in essence a protest election would be the explicitly pro/anti Brexit parties. For Labour and the Tories, this can only bode ill news.

The Brexit Party is a new outfit and doesn’t presently feature as many of the warts as what the public saw in the UKIP brand, now also lost of its main figurehead. The Brexit Party is also moving on from competing with UKIP for the same votes; the same cannot be said for Change UK, the Lib Dems, and the Greens.

A victory for the Brexit Party may put to bed any hope of the Tories acquiescing to a second/confirmatory referendum, and it may hasten Mrs May’s departure, but only two months ago we were talking of a second referendum and a mobilisation of the Remain vote under Change UK. How’s that going?