POLL: Tory and Brexit Party voters back a pact; Farage can move three in ten Labour Leave voters to the Tories

New data from ComRes, commissioned by Britain Elects, has suggested tactical voting may play a decisive part come the next general election, with a significant proportion of Leave voters indicating they’d be willing to change their vote depending on which Brexit-supporting candidate is endorsed by Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage. Among these figures, a sizeable proportion of Labour Leave voters have indicated they’d be more likely to vote for a Brexit-supporting Conservative candidate if in the event of an endorsement from Farage.

28% of Labour Leave voters told ComRes they’d be more likely to vote Conservative in their constituency if Nigel Farage recommended they do so “in order to deliver a Brexit supporting MP”. 56% of Leave voters in Wales and the East Midlands are also of this opinion.

ComRes also asked Tory and Brexit Party supporters whether they’d support a pact between the two parties, and the results point to majorities on both sides being in favour: approaching two thirds of those intending to vote Conservative (63%) and four in five intending to vote Brexit Party (79%) agreed with the view that a pact should exist between the two parties.

Ben Walker, Founder of Britain Elects, says:

“The data we have commissioned offers further evidence to the fact British politics is experiencing a realignment where a number of Labour Leave voters are considering voting Conservative in order to see a Brexit supporting candidate win.

“What the data also shows is that Nigel Farage, once the stepping stone for sending former Labour voters gone UKIP over to the Conservatives, has sizeable influence in pushing Leave voters in a certain direction. This, and the willingness for a pact from both current Conservative and Brexit Party voters is significant insofar as it suggests the Leave vote could be less likely to fragment between the two parties in a constituency than we previously thought.”

Question 1: The best chance Brexit has of happening is for the Conservative Party and The Brexit Party to form a pact where each respective party will stand aside (on a constituency by constituency basis) in favour of the party that has the best chance of winning that seat (Asked of all voters)

Total (%)
NET: Agree 37%
NET: Disagree 18%
Strongly agree 14%
Somewhat agree 24%
Neither agree nor disagree 20%
Somewhat disagree 7%
Strongly disagree 10%
Don’t know 24%

Approaching two thirds of those intending to vote Conservative (63%) and four in five intending to vote Brexit Party (79%) agree the best chance Brexit has of happening is for the Conservative Party and The Brexit Party to form a pact where each respective party will stand aside (on a constituency by constituency basis) in favour of the party that has the best chance of winning that seat.

Approaching three in five 2016 Leave voters agree the best chance Brexit has of happening is for the Conservative Party and The Brexit Party to form a pact where each respective party will stand aside (on a constituency by constituency basis) in favour of the party that has the best chance of winning that seat (57%).

Question 2: Imagine a situation where the party you normally voted for did not have a realistic chance of winning in your local area. Would you still vote for that party, or would you instead vote for a different Brexit-supporting party with a better chance of winning? (Asked of leave voters)

Total (%)
I would vote for the party in favour of Brexit that had the best chance of winning 60%
I would vote for the party that I would normally vote for, irrespective of their chance of winning 27%
Don’t know 13%

Question 3: If Nigel Farage endorsed a Brexit supporting Conservative Party candidate in your constituency in order to deliver a Brexit supporting MP, would that make you more or less likely to vote Conservative? (Asked to leave voters)

Total (%)
NET: More likely 43%
NET: Less likely 11%
Much more likely 24%
Somewhat more likely 19%
No more or less likely 39%
Somewhat less likely 2%
Much less likely 8%
Don’t know 7%

Nigel Farage has the best chance to make people “more likely” to vote Conservative with a personal endorsement of a Brexit supporting Conservative MP in Wales (56%) and the East Midlands (56%).

28% of Labour leave voters say they would be “more likely” to vote Conservative in their constituency if Nigel Farage endorsed the Brexit supporting Conservative candidate.

Methodology Note: ComRes surveyed 2,050 British adults on 18th – 19th September 2019. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults. All questions were also weighted by 2017 past vote recall and EU Referendum past vote. Voting Intention is also weighted by likelihood to vote. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Full tables at www.comresglobal.com