Boris won’t improve Tory electoral fortunes, poll suggests

REUTERS – Rebecca Naden

According to a new poll conducted by YouGov on behalf of Britain Elects, Boris Johnson as leader of the Conservatives would struggle to improve the Conservative Party’s electoral fortunes in a general election. The poll results indicate that any poll bounce for the Conservative Party from electing Johnson as its leader will not materialise in the short term and may only come after Brexit has been delivered. Voters were asked how they would vote in two scenarios.

Scenario 1: If a general election were held with Boris Johnson as Conservative leader before Brexit had been delivered.

The results indicate that a Johnson win is now already priced into current polling with party voting numbers sitting virtually unchanged from current national polls.
(Figures with undecideds and refused excluded: Con 23%, LDem 23%, Brexit 21%, Lab 17%, Grn 8%)

Scenario 2: If a general election were held with Boris Johnson as Conservative leader after Brexit had been delivered.

Under this scenario the Conservative party would build up an 8pt lead over the Lib Dems and a 11pt lead over Labour. The Brexit Party would fall 7pts to 14%.
(Figures with undecideds and refused excluded: Con 28%, LDem 20%, Brexit 14%, Lab 17%, Grn 9%)

Boris Johnson is also seen by voters to be more likely than Jeremy Hunt to deliver Brexit by October 31st and most likely to promise anything to be Prime Minister.


Full Results:

Voting intention with Boris Johnson as leader of the Conservative Party before Brexit is delivered

Scenario 1: Imagine that a General Election is held later this year before Brexit has been delivered. Boris Johnson is the leader of the Conservatives, Jeremy Corbyn remains leader of the Labour Party, Jo Swinson is leader of the Liberal Democrats and Nigel Farage is leader of the Brexit Party. How do you think you would then vote?

Con: 17%
LDem: 17%
Brex: 16%
Lab: 13%
SNP: 3%
Green: 6%
Plaid: 1%
Oth: 2%
Don’t know: 14%
Would not vote: 9%
Refused: 2%

Figures with undecideds and refused excluded:
Con: 23%
LDem: 23%
Brex: 21%
Lab: 17%
Grn: 8%


Voting intention with Boris Johnson as leader of the Conservative Party after Brexit had been delivered

Scenario 2: Imagine that a General Election is held later this year after Brexit has been delivered. Boris Johnson is the leader of the Conservatives, Jeremy Corbyn remains leader of the Labour Party, Jo Swinson is leader of the Liberal Democrats and Nigel Farage is leader of the Brexit Party. How do you think you would then vote?

Con: 20%
Lib: 15%
Brex: 10%
Lab: 13%
SNP: 3%
Grn: 7%
Plaid: 1%
Oth: 1%
Don’t know: 16%
Would not vote: 9%
Refused: 4%

Figures with undecideds and refused excluded:
Con: 28%
LDem: 20%
Brex: 14%
Lab: 17%
Grn: 9%


Notes:
YouGov poll commissioned by Britain Elects
Sample Size: 1,680 GB Adults
Fieldwork: 07 – 08 July, 2019

About Britain Elects:
Britain Elects was founded in 2013 and is Europe’s leading polling aggregator. Our poll trackers are updated as data is released and cover voting intentions for the main political parties, leaders and policies at local and national level, as well as Brexit. We also publish polls in other subject areas that are not included in our trackers. We are a non-partisan organisation and, purely for purposes of transparency and guaranteed access to data tables, only British Polling Council pollsters feature in our trackers.

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