Last night Labour held Newport West with an 8pt lead over the Tories, down from 13pts in 2017.

The by-election was held following the death of Paul Flynn, who passed away on the 17th February, after a long illness involving rheumatoid arthritis.

Paul had represented the constituents of Newport West since 1987, and had served as Shadow Welsh Secretary and Shadow Leader of the House of Commons under Jeremy Corbyn.

The result is broadly in line with what national polling has been telling us, insofar as both Lab and Con are seeing similar falls in support to the advantage of UKIP and, to a lesser extent, the Lib Dems; the rest of the fall in the case of this by-election eaten up by the arrival of small/new parties.

This, nationally, bodes omens that are marginally worse for Labour than the Tories – an election campaign with the current pool of support would be easier for the Tories to squeeze than Labour. UKIP’s moderate increase, in both the polls and Newport, offers a potential struggle for Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party. How many voters, in fact, know Farage no longer leads UKIP? 

The latest figures from our poll tracker, as of 30th March

Though Labour saw a 12pt fall in support, on the topline, little has changed. Nationally speaking, if an election were held today the House of Commons would be not too dissimilar to that of 2017: a hung parliament with the Conservatives as the largest party.

As you were.