Labour’s lead down to half a point

Almost three months have passed since the general election result was known and public opinion has marginally shifted in favour of Labour.

They now lead in the polls for the first time since April 2015. At present our poll tracker puts Labour ahead of the Conservatives by only half a point, down from a lead of 4.5pts at the end of June.

With conference season right around the corner, there is potential for one or more of the parties to see their fortunes shift, depending on the coverage and attention they receive when their faithful come together.

Some may comment that support for UKIP and the Greens is up on the election result in our poll tracker. It may be the case that support has increased for them, but the more likely scenario is they are no longer weighted down in response to their sporadic fielding of candidates for the general election.


Bregrexit does not yet exist

If there was to be a second EU referendum tomorrow, it’s possible that Remain would – just – edge it, for that is what the latest poll suggests, but not as a consequence of Leave voters changing their minds.

The latest Opinium poll shows that if only those that voted in 2016 voted again [tables here], then Leave would win, but factor in new voters – those that did not or were unable to turn out last year – then Remain would win.

EU referendum voting intentions

Pollster Fieldwork Remain Leave Method NET
Opinium 15 Sep 17 45 45 Online TIE
Opinium 18 Aug 17 47 44 Online Remain +3
Survation 15 Jul 17 47 48 Online Leave +1
YouGov 30 Jun 17 46 42 Online Remain +4
Survation 30 Jun 17 53 44 Phone Remain +9
Panelbase 21 Jun 17 46 50 Online Leave +4
Survation 17 Jun 17 50 48 Phone Remain +2
Survation 10 Jun 17 48 46 Online Remain +2
Panelbase 07 Jun 17 46 51 Online Leave +5
Panelbase 01 Jun 17 47 49 Online Leave +2
Panelbase 23 May 17 48 49 Online Leave +1
Panelbase 15 May 17 47 50 Online Leave +3
Panelbase 09 May 17 47 49 Online Leave +2
Panelbase 24 Apr 17 46 50 Online Leave +4
YouGov 30 Mar 17 44 43 Online Remain +1
YouGov 24 Jan 17 43 44 Online Leave +1
YouGov 21 Dec 16 44 43 Online Remain +1
ComRes 27 Nov 16 46 47 Online Leave +1
YouGov 25 Oct 16 43 44 Online Leave +1
BMG 24 Oct 16 45 43 Online Remain +2
YouGov 20 Sep 16 42 46 Online Leave +4
YouGov 09 Sep 16 43 45 Online Leave +2
YouGov 27 Jul 16 43 44 Online Leave +1
YouGov 04 Jul 16 45 45 Online TIE

Ipsos Mori’s drilldown of how Britain voted in the general election found that Remain voters were a lot more robust in continuing to turn out for elections than their Leave counterparts. The research found that 76% of those that voted Remain turned out for the GE, while in contrast only 70% of those that voted Leave did the same. As to why there is a such a discrepancy is yet to be answered, but a few ideas spring to mind: 1) A complacency and contentment regarding a perceived impending victory for Theresa May’s pro-Brexit Tories; or/and 2) A failure by both parties (and the absence of UKIP/Nigel Farage) to develop relative messaging to turn those Leave voters out.


YouGov’s hindsight tracker (‘Was the vote for Brexit the right or wrong decision’) shows the share of those opting for either option swapping places almost every time it’s asked. Their latest poll, with fieldwork from the 21st to 22nd August, finds 45 per cent of Britons say the vote for Brexit was, in hindsight, the wrong choice. 43 per cent say it was the right choice.

Fieldwork Right Wrong NET
31 Aug 17 44 44 0
22 Aug 17 43 45 -2
01 Aug 17 45 45 0
11 Jul 17 45 43 2
22 Jun 17 44 45 -1
13 Jun 17 44 45 -1
07 Jun 17 45 45 0
31 May 17 44 45 -1
25 May 17 46 43 3
17 May 17 46 43 3
14 May 17 45 41 4
10 May 17 44 45 -1
03 May 17 46 43 3
26 Apr 17 43 45 -2
21 Apr 17 44 44 0
19 Apr 17 46 43 3
13 Apr 17 45 43 2
06 Apr 17 46 42 4
27 Mar 17 44 43 1
21 Mar 17 44 44 0
15 Mar 17 46 41 5
14 Mar 17 44 42 2
28 Feb 17 45 44 1
22 Feb 17 45 45 0
13 Feb 17 46 42 4
31 Jan 17 45 42 3
18 Jan 17 46 42 4
10 Jan 17 46 42 4
04 Jan 17 47 43 4
19 Dec 16 44 44 0
05 Dec 16 44 42 2
29 Nov 16 44 45 -1
15 Nov 16 46 43 3
20 Oct 16 45 44 1
12 Oct 16 45 44 1
14 Sep 16 46 43 3
31 Aug 16 47 44 3
23 Aug 16 45 43 2
17 Aug 16 46 43 3
09 Aug 16 45 44 1
02 Aug 16 46 42 4

Public opinion has softened towards a Brexit exit fee

And finally, a new ICM survey for the Guardian finds public opinion seems to have softened towards a Brexit settlement fee. In April, ICM found 15 per cent of voters would consider a £10bn exit fee acceptable. Now, that figure has risen to 41 per cent.

Although there is some variation in question wording, the direction of travel seems to be clear: public opinion is softening. What with 40 per cent of voters finding the £10bn figure unacceptable, however, there is at present no majority consensus on the direction of exit from the British people.

Except, perhaps, the ever popular policy of having a cake and eating it.