Labour’s lead down to half a point

Almost three months have passed since the general election result was known and public opinion has marginally shifted in favour of Labour.

They now lead in the polls for the first time since April 2015. At present our poll tracker puts Labour ahead of the Conservatives by only half a point, down from a lead of 4.5pts at the end of June.

With conference season right around the corner, there is potential for one or more of the parties to see their fortunes shift, depending on the coverage and attention they receive when their faithful come together.

Some may comment that support for UKIP and the Greens is up on the election result in our poll tracker. It may be the case that support has increased for them, but the more likely scenario is they are no longer weighted down in response to their sporadic fielding of candidates for the general election.

Bregrexit does not yet exist

If there was to be a second EU referendum tomorrow, it’s possible that Remain would – just – edge it, for that is what the latest poll suggests, but not as a consequence of Leave voters changing their minds.

The latest Opinium poll shows that if only those that voted in 2016 voted again [tables here], then Leave would win, but factor in new voters – those that did not or were unable to turn out last year – then Remain would win.

EU referendum voting intentions

Opinium22 Sep 174544OnlineRemain +1
Opinium15 Sep 174545OnlineTIE
Opinium18 Aug 174744OnlineRemain +3
Survation15 Jul 174748OnlineLeave +1
YouGov30 Jun 174642OnlineRemain +4
Survation30 Jun 175344PhoneRemain +9
Panelbase21 Jun 174650OnlineLeave +4
Survation17 Jun 175048PhoneRemain +2
Survation10 Jun 174846OnlineRemain +2
Panelbase07 Jun 174651OnlineLeave +5
Panelbase01 Jun 174749OnlineLeave +2
Panelbase23 May 174849OnlineLeave +1
Panelbase15 May 174750OnlineLeave +3
Panelbase09 May 174749OnlineLeave +2
Panelbase24 Apr 174650OnlineLeave +4
YouGov30 Mar 174443OnlineRemain +1
YouGov24 Jan 174344OnlineLeave +1
YouGov21 Dec 164443OnlineRemain +1
ComRes27 Nov 164647OnlineLeave +1
YouGov25 Oct 164344OnlineLeave +1
BMG24 Oct 164543OnlineRemain +2
YouGov20 Sep 164246OnlineLeave +4
YouGov09 Sep 164345OnlineLeave +2
YouGov27 Jul 164344OnlineLeave +1
YouGov04 Jul 164545OnlineTIE

Ipsos Mori’s drilldown of how Britain voted in the general election found that Remain voters were a lot more robust in continuing to turn out for elections than their Leave counterparts. The research found that 76% of those that voted Remain turned out for the GE, while in contrast only 70% of those that voted Leave did the same. As to why there is a such a discrepancy is yet to be answered, but a few ideas spring to mind: 1) A complacency and contentment regarding a perceived impending victory for Theresa May’s pro-Brexit Tories; or/and 2) A failure by both parties (and the absence of UKIP/Nigel Farage) to develop relative messaging to turn those Leave voters out.

YouGov’s hindsight tracker (‘Was the vote for Brexit the right or wrong decision’) shows the share of those opting for either option swapping places almost every time it’s asked. Their latest poll, with fieldwork from the 21st to 22nd August, finds 45 per cent of Britons say the vote for Brexit was, in hindsight, the wrong choice. 43 per cent say it was the right choice.

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Public opinion has softened towards a Brexit exit fee

And finally, a new ICM survey for the Guardian finds public opinion seems to have softened towards a Brexit settlement fee. In April, ICM found 15 per cent of voters would consider a £10bn exit fee acceptable. Now, that figure has risen to 41 per cent.

Although there is some variation in question wording, the direction of travel seems to be clear: public opinion is softening. What with 40 per cent of voters finding the £10bn figure unacceptable, however, there is at present no majority consensus on the direction of exit from the British people.

Except, perhaps, the ever popular policy of having a cake and eating it.