If an election were held today, we project the Conservatives would retain the status of largest party in the House of Commons, though down 19 seats.

Our poll tracker, which covers Great Britain only, has Labour at 42.1 per cent and the Conservatives 41.1 per cent. With a slender lead of 1pt, this would, according to our forecast model, translate into Labour still falling short of overtaking the Tories in the Commons, albeit by 10 seats.

On current polling we do not expect any party to attain a majority in the Commons. The forecast projects the Tories to take 298 seats to Labour’s 289. 13 of Labour’s gains are expected to come from Scotland and London. High profile gains from the Tories would include Theresa Villiers’ Chipping Barnet constituency, Stephen Crabb’s Preseli Pembrokeshire,  Chloe Smith’s Norwich North, Amber Rudd’s Hastings & Rye and Putney, represented by Education Secretary Justine Greening.

We expect the Scottish National Party to come away with 25 seats, down 10 on June, and the Liberal Democrats to net 3, totaling 15.

Constituency Forecast Probability
Arfon Lab gain from PC 50.9%
Perth and North Perthshire Con gain from SNP 54.4%
Milton Keynes North Lab gain from Con 54.4%
Aberconwy Lab gain from Con 56.1%
Telford Lab gain from Con 56.1%
Glasgow North Lab gain from SNP 56.1%
Watford Lab gain from Con 57.9%
St Ives LDem gain from Con 57.9%
Milton Keynes South Lab gain from Con 59.6%
Barrow and Furness Con gain from Lab 61.4%
Finchley and Golders Green Lab gain from Con 61.4%
Glasgow South West Lab gain from SNP 61.4%
Putney Lab gain from Con 63.2%
Hastings and Rye Lab gain from Con 63.2%
Glasgow East Lab gain from SNP 63.2%
Lanark and Hamilton East Lab gain from SNP 64.9%
Calder Valley Lab gain from Con 66.7%
Pudsey Lab gain from Con 66.7%
North East Fife LDem gain from SNP 66.7%
Harrow East Lab gain from Con 68.4%
Dunfermline and West Fife Lab gain from SNP 68.4%
Norwich North Lab gain from Con 70.2%
South Swindon Lab gain from Con 71.9%
Preseli Pembrokeshire Lab gain from Con 71.9%
Hendon Lab gain from Con 73.7%
Motherwell and Wishaw Lab gain from SNP 73.7%
Camborne and Redruth Lab gain from Con 77.2%
Airdrie and Shotts Lab gain from SNP 77.2%
Inverclyde Lab gain from SNP 77.2%
Southampton, Itchen Lab gain from Con 80.7%
Thurrock Lab gain from Con 82.5%
Chipping Barnet Lab gain from Con 84.2%
Richmond Park LDem gain from Con 98.2%

Naturally, because a model is a model, this forecast does not account for the potential incumbency bonuses that will inevitably play a part at the next election.

If public opinion has shifted noticeably, or if new data becomes available, we will issue an update to our forecast.

Note:

The model we use to make this forecast is the same model used for the 2017 General Election, where our final projection (or ‘nowcast’) overstated the Conservatives by around 40 odd seats and understated Labour by around the same number. It follows the same methodology as outlined on our Nowcast page. Our model was reliant on regional and national polling at the time, which underestimated Labour on average by 4pts. Had the polls been accurate in gauging the Labour share, then so would our forecast, which would have produced a final projection on 08 June of Con 322, Lab 256, SNP 37, LDem 14.