How might Britain vote in a General Election tomorrow?

Our Poll Of Polls

Our ‘poll of polls’ polling model is an amended (so to remove the potential over-saturation of frequent pollsters at certain points) seven point rolling average of all current Westminster voting intentions taken following the 2015 General Election.

The Conservatives have so far had an uninterrupted lead in our model since May 2015.

The Current Projection

No one can know for certain how Britain would vote in a hypothetical general election, but following voting intention polls you can get a decent picture of how public opinion is shaping up.

Using Martin Baxter’s Electoral Calculus with our polling model, we can suggest the Conservatives on the current boundaries would be heading for a comfortable majority, wielding 359 seats (55 per cent of the Commons), up 29 while Labour would fall 29 to 203.

The Liberal Democrats would gain one, totalling NINE. UKIP and the Greens would both retain their solitary seats.

The Scottish National Party would suffer a net loss of just one to 55 seats and Plaid Cymru would net one, totalling four seats.

This current projection does not take into account the potential for tactical voting. Changes are from the 2015 General Election.

Hi, welcome to Britain Elects

Two years behind schedule, our site is finally now live! We hope you like what you see but must apologise for the current ‘bare bones’ nature of it. More content will be added as time goes on but as BE is an entirely voluntary affair, you will for now hopefully appreciate the slow pace of things. If you’d like to help out, donations are appreciated!


The Boundary Proposals

Proposals for new boundaries intended to be used for the next general election were published in October 2016. While draft proposals, they reduce the size of the House of Commons from 650 seats to 600.

It is likely that over time there will be numerous amendments to tackle constituency-by-constituency concerns and objections.

In terms of what the changes may mean for the partisan composition of the Commons, the effects are discussed in an article here.

Article Posts

May vs. Corbyn, public perceptions

New Opinium polling commissioned by Keiran Pedley offers some light on public perceptions towards Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and Prime Minister Theresa May. Surveyed during the end of January following May’s Brexit speech, voters were asked whether they’d agree or disagree with a few choice statements about them. Chart: Public perceptions towards Prime Minister Theresa May...

A note on the Sunderland Sandhill council by-election

Many a comment has been made about Sunderland’s Sandhill council by-election result from last night, about what it may or may not mean and whether it is indicative of something or nothing. An anonymous source told me on Tuesday that the Lib Dems had been working the ward for three months, an abnormal length of campaigning for council by-election campaigns. Ciarán Morrissey, a Liberal...

2016’s Council By-Elections, a roundup

When it comes to council by-elections, 2016 has been unquestionably a good year for the Liberal Democrats. There have been 317 principal authority by-elections and deferred council contests held over the course of this year. Cornwall stands out as the authority with the most number of by-elections held, at seven. Council by-elections happen for a number of reasons. From the passing away or...

Theresa May, five months on

Five months since Theresa May’s ascendancy to Downing Street, the public’s impressions of her are more positive than negative but waver slightly in the face of growing opposition. Ipsos Mori’s satisfaction tracker show the new Prime Minister has over the course of the past five months – with the exception of October (where it was 48 per cent) – had half or more...

What do the boundary changes mean?

The Boundary Commission(s) for England, Scotland and Wales have all respectively published their initial boundary proposals (map below). The intentions of these proposals are to see an equal number of electors in all seats across the United Kingdom (no less than 71,000) with the hope that they will be used for the 2020 General Election. These proposals are likely to be altered and revised...

Remembering Lily Jayne Summers, 1993 - 2016

Lily was integral to the development of Britain Elects, co-founding it in 2013 and working hard on every national election night since. She was a passionate person committed to the politics she believed in. She was authentic, ambitious and heartwarming to those who knew her.

She was a great colleague, but to me she was more a close friend than anything else. Lily meant so much. It was our friendship and commitment to helping each other out that got Britain Elects off the ground, really. I’m shocked and sorry to see her taken from this world at such a young age.

– Ben, Co-Founder